Ghana Cedi poised for short-term rebound on IMF inflow

The Ghana cedi is expected to regain some strength over the next two weeks, despite coming under mild pressure in recent sessions amid tighter foreign exchange supply.

The anticipated rebound is largely anchored on a projected US$385 million disbursement from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which is expected to bolster liquidity in the forex market and improve sentiment around the local currency.

Analysts forecast that the cedi will stabilise within the GH¢11.39 to GH¢11.45 range against the US dollar in the near term.

Databank Research attributed the recent depreciation to seasonal demand pressures, particularly typical year-end adjustments in foreign exchange positions. The firm, however, maintained that the cedi remains fundamentally sound.

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“Our assessment suggests the cedi is trading close to its fair value, with minimal deviation from Real Effective Exchange Rate benchmarks, indicating no significant overvaluation or undervaluation,” Databank Research noted.

Over the past two weeks, the local currency recorded modest losses against the major international currencies across both the wholesale and retail markets.

In the interbank market, the US dollar strengthened to close at a mid-rate of GH¢11.49, up from GH¢11.41.

The British pound and the euro also edged higher, settling at GH¢15.35 from GH¢15.26 and GH¢13.47 from GH¢13.32, respectively.

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At the retail end of the market, the cedi depreciated by 2.03 per cent to GH¢12.30 per US dollar, while losses of 2.75 per cent and 2.79 per cent were recorded against the pound and euro, which closed at GH¢16.35 and GH¢14.35, respectively.

Meanwhile, forex bureaus opened the week quoting the cedi at around GH¢12.40 to the US dollar, reflecting ongoing demand pressures.

Despite the recent softness, the cedi remains one of the stronger-performing currencies in the region, posting a year-to-date gain of 26.22 per cent against the US dollar.