Why Arsenal will still win the 2026 Premier League title

Three points up. Five games left. But City have six — and that changes everything.

Let's be completely honest, because that's the only way to make a real argument. Arsenal lost 2-1 at the Etihad today. Manchester City, riding that momentum, now have a game in hand — six fixtures remaining to Arsenal's five. If City win that game in hand on Wednesday against Burnley, the gap closes to zero. Same points, same position, but City with a game more to play.

So yes, this title race just got real. But here's the thing — when you actually look at what both clubs have left to play, Arsenal's path to the title is still the cleaner, more reliable one. And City's remaining schedule has enough genuine difficulty in it to give every Arsenal supporter real reason to believe.

This is not blind faith. This is maths and fixtures.

First, The Table as It Stands

Arsenal are on 70 points. The city is on 67. That's a three-point gap with Arsenal having played 33 games and City having played 32. The city's game in hand comes first — Wednesday evening, away at Burnley.

If City win that, we're level on points, with Arsenal having one fewer game to play. If City drop points at Burnley — and we'll get to why that's not as crazy as it sounds — Arsenal are suddenly in a much stronger position heading into the final run.

Everything starts Wednesday.

City's Six Games — Where the Cracks Could Appear

This is where the Arsenal case gets genuinely interesting, because City's remaining schedule is not the cakewalk it might appear at first glance.

Wednesday 22 April — Burnley vs Manchester City (Away) On paper, this is the easiest game left for City. Burnley are 19th, rock bottom, with 20 points. The win probability sits at 83% in City's favour, and realistically, they should win this. But Burnley away, under the lights, with a team that has absolutely nothing to lose and an angry home crowd behind them? Stranger things have happened. The city needs to be professional here, not complacent.

Monday 4 May — Everton vs Manchester City (Away) This is the fixture that should genuinely concern City fans. Everton are 10th with 47 points — a proper, motivated, mid-table side with European ambitions still mathematically alive. Goodison Park is one of the most hostile away grounds in England, a place where atmosphere and intensity can suffocate even the most technically superior visitors. Everton beat teams like this. They have players who turn up in big moments. This is far from a guaranteed three points.

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Saturday, 9 May — Manchester City vs Brentford (Home). Brentford sit 7th on 48 points and have had an excellent season. They drew 1-1 with Arsenal at their place earlier this year and have shown they can take points off anyone. City at home are obviously strong, but Brentford travel well and are not the kind of side that rolls over. Contested, but the city should edge it.

Sunday 17 May — Bournemouth vs Manchester City (Away) Bournemouth are 8th with 48 points and have been one of the stories of the season. They beat Arsenal 2-1 at the Emirates just a few weeks ago — that result is still fresh in the memory. Bournemouth at home, energetic, with nothing to fear? This is another game where City could very easily drop points.

Friday 22 May — Manchester City vs Crystal Palace (Home) — City's penultimate game. Palace are 13th and should have little to play for by this point, making this a relatively comfortable home fixture.

Sunday 24 May — Manchester City vs Aston Villa (Home) — Season Finale And here is City's final game — and it is a monster. Aston Villa are 4th on 58 points, locked in a fight for Champions League qualification. Villa will come to the Etihad on the last day of the season with everything to play for. Unai Emery's side don't travel to big grounds and lie down. If the title is still on the line on the final day, this is a terrifying fixture for City to have.

Arsenal's Five Games — The Cleaner Path

Now compare that to what Arsenal have left, and the contrast is striking.

Saturday 25 April — Arsenal vs Newcastle United (Home). Newcastle are 14th. They have little to fight for. The Emirates will be a cauldron. Win probability at 63% in Arsenal's favour, and that number feels conservative given home form. These are three points that Arsenal must take and fully can.

Saturday, 2 May — Arsenal vs Fulham (Home). Fulham are at 12th, another comfortable mid-table side. City already beat Fulham 3-0 at home this season. Arsenal at the Emirates, with the title in sight and the crowd fully behind them? Fulham will struggle to contain the energy in that stadium. Another very winnable home game.

Sunday 10 May — West Ham United vs Arsenal (Away) West Ham are 17th, in real relegation danger on just 32 points. They will be desperate, yes — but desperate in a way that makes them disorganised and nervous, not dangerous in a structured, threatening way. An Arteta side built on defensive solidity and counter-pressing is precisely the kind of team that exploits chaotic, survival-mode opponents. Arsenal should get the job done here.

Sunday 17 May — Arsenal vs Burnley (Home) The same Burnley that City play on Wednesday — and by mid-May, Burnley will almost certainly already have been relegated. A home game against a broken, already-down Burnley side with the title still potentially in the balance? The Emirates crowd will be deafening. This is as close to a certainty as football allows.

Sunday 24 May — Crystal Palace vs Arsenal (Away) — Season Finale. Palace are 13th, nothing to play for, home fans already mentally on the beach. Meanwhile, Arsenal could arrive at Selhurst Park needing just a point – or be champions already. Either way, the motivation disparity between these two sides on that final day is enormous.

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The Crunch Comparison

Here's the brutal summary. The city's remaining six opponents sit at positions 19th, 10th, 7th, 8th, 13th, and 4th. Arsenal's five opponents sit at 14th, 12th, 17th, 19th, and 13th.

The city faces Everton, Brentford, Bournemouth, and Aston Villa – four sides who are all firmly in the top half of the table, all with something to play for, all capable of taking points. Arsenal face no one currently above 14th. Not one opponent who is locked into a meaningful fight at the top of the table.

If you were drawing up the ideal set of fixtures to close out a title race, you'd draw Arsenal's schedule, not City's.

The Mentality of a Team That's Been Here Before

There's something else worth saying, and it matters more than any fixture analysis. This Arsenal squad has felt the pain of coming close and falling short. The players who have lived through those near-misses under Arteta are still here — and that experience has not broken them. If anything, watching City pip them to the title in previous seasons has created a collective hunger that no external pressure can shake.

A 2-1 defeat at the Etihad today, as painful as it is, will not derail this group. They know they're still in control. Win your games, and the trophy is yours. It is that simple, and this squad is built for exactly that clarity of purpose.

The Verdict

The city absolutely deserves credit for winning today and bringing this race back to life. Their game in hand on Wednesday against Burnley makes this genuinely tight. But step back and look at the full picture – the quality of opponents, the home advantage, and the pressure on City's schedule in those crucial May fixtures against Everton, Bournemouth, Brentford, and Aston Villa – and Arsenal's path to the title remains the more navigable one.

The city needs to be near-perfect over six games, including some genuinely difficult away trips and a potentially title-deciding home clash with a top-four-chasing Villa side on the last day.

Arsenal need to win five games against opponents who are mostly fighting to stay up or have nothing left to play for.

Back the Gunners. The 2026 Premier League title is heading to North London.

Arsenal: 70 pts (33 played) · Manchester City: 67 pts (32 played) · Arsenal have 5 games left. · The city has 6